Prediction of Chicken Prices During Covid-19 Pandemic Using VAR, Kernel, and Fourier Series Simultaneously

One of the goals of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to achieve good food security. However, this goal is difficult to implement due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19). One of the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the trade sector is the change in prices of several main commodities, such as chicken meat and eggs. Firstly, this study uses the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to predict the prices of chicken meat and eggs. However, there are several parameters that are not significant and the assumptions of data stationarity, residual simultaneous normality, and residual homogenity are not met. Thus, simultaneous nonparametric methods, that is the kernel and Fourier series, is used to predict the prices of chicken commodity. Simultaneous kernel modeling produces a Gaussian function with h = 0.65 as the best kernel function, while simultaneous Fourier series produces a cosine sine function with γ and π. The Fourier series produces K= 119 as the best function. So, simultaneous Gaussian-kernel model is the best model based on the criteria of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and R2, with the value of 107.93 and 99.83% for chicken meat, and 16.54 and 99.97% for chicken eggs, respectively. The best model has good performance in prediction with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value for chicken meat price of 3.2444%, while for chicken egg price of 3.758%. The prediction results of the simultaneous Gaussian-kernel model are expected to be a reference for the government in controlling related commodity prices during the Covid-19 pandemic. © 2022 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.

Study on the analysis of demographic data based on spatial information systems

The demography database system should be very useful for various purposes in resolving socio-economic problems, such as the distribution of charity, especially for people affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. But unfortunately, the demography database system in Indonesia still has many problems. Things to consider are that there is no integration between databases at the central and local governments, and there is no synchronization of data between institutions. The next problem is that our demographic database system is not based on spatial information. Therefore, we need a demography database system that is integrated with the spatial information system. This study aims to integrate a demographic database system into a spatial information system. The demographic database system in principle always refers to certain administrative units, such as villages, subdistricts, districts/cities, and the state. The administrative unit can contain information about a geographic perspective, such as elevation, position, topography, etc. As a result, in addition to demographic policies, geographic perspectives can be considered, and the identification of asynchronous data between central and local governments becomes easier. In addition, there are impacts, which need to be considered in transforming tabular to spatial data, such as;scale factor, generalization, and classification.

Clinical improvement with pirfenidone in two patients of COVID 19

Pirfenidone has been approved for the treatment of Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis due to its anti-fibrotic activity. It has been shown to have anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties apart from being an anti-fibrotic agent. Cytokine storm, severe inflammation and oxidative stress leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multi organ failure are factors causing mortality in patients of COVID-19. This article reports two cases of 35 years and 60 years old male patients of COVID-19, those were diagnosed by real time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) using nasopharyngeal samples. They were started on pirfenidone 400mg bd, later increased to 600mg tds along with empirical antibiotics, dexamethasone, supplemental oxygen and non-invasive ventilator support. Both the patients improved and were discharged. Both the patients were followed by telemedicine after 1 week, did not require oxygen at rest and were comfortable at rest in contrast to earlier complains. Thus, the authors conclude that pirfenidone can be a possible cure for COVID-19 patients, larger trials are required to confirm its efficacy.